## (Solution Document) The probability that a randomly chosen 65-year-old woman is divorced is about 0. This probability is a long-run proportion based on all the millions...

The probability that a randomly chosen 65-year-old woman is divorced is about 0.14. This probability is a long-run proportion based on all the millions of women aged 65. Let's suppose that the proportion stays at 0.14 for the next 45 years. Bridget is now 20 years old and is not married. Bridget thinks her own chances of being divorced at age 65 are about 5%. Explain why this is a personal probability.

Select all of the statements that are true:

This probability is the long-run behavior for 100 women, 5 of whom were divorced before age 65.

This probability represents the proportion of Bridget's female relatives who got divorced before age 65.

Since a woman is either divorced or is not divorced, the probability of either of these events is 5%.

This is based on a personal judgment of her likelihood to get divorced; it is not based on data on repeated trials of an experiment.

STATUS